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Naming the anticyclones driving extreme heat in southern Europe after Cerberus and Charon — in Greek mythology, the hound who guarded the gates to the underworld and the ferryman who carried the dead there — seems grimly apt. The record-breaking weather is not just a European but a global phenomenon. The World Meteorological Organization warned this week that “parallel and stationary heat domes” meant temperatures would top 40C in parts of North America, Asia, and across north Africa and the Mediterranean for days to come. Some scientists worry the world is approaching tipping points where heat drives irreversible changes. Political tipping points, or concerted global action on the scale needed to avert disastrous outcomes, seem as distant as ever.
The most striking feature of the current weather is how frequently, how widely and by what magnitude temperature records are being broken. Last month was the hottest June on record, beating 2019’s record by a substantial margin. Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest extent for June since satellite observations began.
Parts of southern Europe are approaching the highest temperatures the continent has experienced. China hit a record 52.2C in Xinjiang on Sunday. In the US, Phoenix, Arizona, has suffered 19 straight days of above-110F (43.3C) conditions. And in sizzling Miami, forget about a swim to cool off: the sea temperature has hit almost 32C.
This warming is not entirely human-generated; the arrival of El Niño, the warm phase of the multiyear fluctuation in the Earth’s climate system, has started to turbocharge underlying changes, and may do so for several years. The WMO says the Earth’s temperature is more than likely to temporarily exceed 1.5C above the pre-industrial era in at least one year by 2027.
That is the level to which world leaders agreed ideally to try to limit overall warming in the 2015 Paris agreement. If 1.5C of warming becomes entrenched, scientists expect the impact of climate change to accelerate. Some scientists suggest progressively warmer years in the next decade and beyond will make this summer’s abnormal peaks eventually seem normal.
The implications are profound. One is that the authorities need to adapt even more rapidly than previously expected to global warming and its effects — from wildfires, drought and floods to increased summer health emergencies.
Most of all, however, the heat is physical proof of the need for political leaders to direct and mobilise the kind of financial and technological resources that were brought to bear on the Covid-19 pandemic, in the even bigger, long-term pursuit of tackling climate change.
Politicians may think most about the short term. But global warming is now an emergency. Governments have put much effort into creating mechanisms to incentivise companies to invest in the green transition. But more co-ordinated efforts are needed to replace petrol and diesel-fuelled cars, trucks and public transport with electric vehicles, as the fastest way to reduce oil demand.
Similarly, replacement of fossil fuel-powered generation with wind and solar power needs to be sharply accelerated even beyond the levels achieved in recent years. That will require fast-tracked planning processes and huge investments in upgrading power grids.
There have been encouraging advances, including the Biden administration’s very ambitious $370bn Inflation Reduction Act. Unfortunately, in the EU, far-right and even some mainstream centre-right parties have recently been distancing themselves from green agendas. As much of southern Europe wilts under a piercing sun, that is surely the wrong direction.
